منابع مشابه
Does anchoring cause overconfidence only in experts?
The anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) predicts elicitation of an initial estimate will prompt subsequent minimum and maximum estimates to lie close to the initial estimate, resulting in narrow ranges and overconfidence. Evidence for this, however, is mixed; while Heywood-Smith, Welsh & Begg (2008) observed narrower subsequent ranges, Block and Harper (1991) report ra...
متن کاملEconomists as Experts: Overconfidence in theory and practice
Drawing on research in the psychology of judgment and decision making, I argue that individual economists acting as experts in matters of public policy are likely to be victims of significant overconfidence. The case is based on the pervasiveness of the phenomenon, the nature of the task facing economists-as-experts, and the character of the institutional constraints under which they operate. M...
متن کاملReducing overconfidence in the interval judgments of experts.
Elicitation of expert opinion is important for risk analysis when only limited data are available. Expert opinion is often elicited in the form of subjective confidence intervals; however, these are prone to substantial overconfidence. We investigated the influence of elicitation question format, in particular the number of steps in the elicitation procedure. In a 3-point elicitation procedure,...
متن کاملIgnorant In uence Diagrams
Innuence Diagrams (ids) are a graphic formalism able to provide a compact representation of decision problems. ids are based on the axioms of probability and decision theory, and they deene a normative framework to model decision making. Unfortunately, ids require a large amount of information that is not always available to the decision maker. This paper introduces a new class of ids, called I...
متن کاملIgnoring Ignorance Is Ignorant
When prior probabilities are given as data, there is generally little objection to the use of the Bayes formula or Bayesian networks. On the other hand, when prior probabilities are lacking, Bayesians have the tendency to ignore their ignorance and to make the priors up out of thin air. This leads to decisions in situations where gathering more information would be more appropriate. This paper ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society
سال: 1981
ISSN: 0090-5054
DOI: 10.3758/bf03333674